Why Mathematical Formulas Only Work Backwards in Time, Not Forward

For example, if I say: E = mc² applies to something that has already happened, that can be correct.
But if I say: E = mc² applies in the future, that is like laying down a tarot card. You are looking for a law that can predict the future—but that is impossible.
You can only describe what has already happened.

The past is limited to the amount of knowledge available at that time.
The future is not limited, because we can discover things we do not yet know.
It’s like thoughts: you can only think of something in terms of what you know, but you don’t know what you don’t know—and therefore cannot predict what will happen.

Reality Just Goes On

I want to investigate whether the probability of heads or tails with a fair coin is 50/50.

I built a robot that can flip a coin in a fair way.

The robot is going to flip the coin 1 quadrillion times.

After a quarter of the experiment, the robot breaks down: the experiment is paused for 20 of the 30 years.

At the end, these are the outcomes:
• 499,999,999,999,999,999,937 times tails
• 500,000,000,000,000,000,063 times heads

What is the correct conclusion?
A mathematician would say: the probability is 50/50, because the difference is extremely small. But there is an important detail you are missing. What is that detail?

A third outcome has emerged. When the robot broke down after a quarter of the experiment, that counts as an instance in which the coin did not land on heads or tails.
There is a third outcome that you don’t see as a third outcome, because you think that during that time you didn’t measure, and therefore it has nothing to do with the experiment — but it does.

The experiment lasted 30 years, and the robot was broken for 20 years. Then the portion of times the coin did not land on heads or tails is disproportionately large, much larger than you think.

This also applies to complex experiments, such as at CERN.
If your CERN machine is idle half of the time, you also have to count that as a third outcome.

Does this look familiar to you? This is how a quantum particle behaves. But a quantum particle doesn't behave like this at all. You're looking at reality the wrong way.

When you look back, it seems like it happened in only one way — but many things happened that you didn’t see. And the way something happened can be approached from different angles.
When you look ahead, anything can still happen, even things that are currently beyond your imagination.
Let’s learn from each other and celebrate that everyone sees reality in their own unique way.

Within a single observation, you saw this:
• Heads
• Tails
• Neither heads nor tails (because the machine was broken)

It might seem like we can never really understand reality this way, since we can’t do controlled experiments. But we actually can, if we choose to make as many observations as possible. In other words: just write down everything you see. It’s fun.

Being afraid of AI is being afraid of a bit of electricity.
When people think about the future, they think too much in terms they already know.

Take AI, for example. This is the mental shortcut you often hear: computers used to be less intelligent, so in the future they’ll keep getting more intelligent.

But you can also look at it differently: computers only have indirect power over us (because we spend all day on our phones), but computers have never shown any initiative to take over the world. So we have no evidence whatsoever that AI will become a problem. Computers have also never shown a single sign of true intelligence. Winning a game of chess has little to do with intelligence.

Something entirely different could happen as well: it’s possible that in a few hundred years people will say, “Those computers were fun, but they use too much energy and life was more enjoyable when we did things ourselves — so we got rid of most of them.” That’s something we simply can’t know right now.

Or maybe AI will take over the world — and perhaps that would actually be better, because then flora and fauna could recover in peace.

The point is: we don’t know. The only thing we do know is that we think in terms we already understand — and that’s a limitation when you’re trying to grasp the future.

It takes years to get into good physical shape. Mental shape is exactly the same. It’s the reason why scientists peak during certain periods of their lives. When you’re in top shape, you know you’re in top shape.

The problem is: when you’re in bad shape—let’s say you have anxiety, depression, or you’re in a state of psychosis—it works the same way. It takes years to develop one of these disorders. When you go to the doctor, this is often overlooked. It’s treated as if something developed over months, but in reality it takes 10 or even 20 years.

So when you arrive at the doctor, you arrive at a point in time. At that moment, you’re in a state of confusion—you have no idea what to do. The doctor, on the other hand, hasn’t seen what you’ve been doing for the last decade. So neither of you has a real clue what’s going on.

I was in a psychosis once. When I was in that state, I thought my dog was a robot and the world was conspiring against me. (To be clear: I have a university degree.) About three years ago, I decided to change literally everything in my life. I got myself back into normal mental shape. I bought my own apartment and now I have a top 10% job.

I don’t mean this as bragging—it’s important to understand that you can go from practically being a bum to the top when you do the right things. In that sense, there’s no real limit. Everybody has the same capacity; the rest is confidence and hard work.