You try to predict the future. You flip a fair coin.
What’s the chance that it lands on heads?
It’s not 50/50. We don’t actually know what will happen in the future. The coin could land on its side. A gust of wind could blow it away. A meteor could hit the Earth one second from now.
So the chance isn’t really 50/50 — it’s 50/50 most of the time, but only under certain assumptions. It’s a probability within a probability.
It’s only 50/50 if you deliberately narrow it down to two outcomes, which is a fundamental flaw in science in general. Just because you reduce something to two options, doesn’t mean it actually has only two options. That’s imaginary.
Smarter would be to let things happen first, and then observe them as they unfold — and afterwards. That’s not the same as predicting the future. Because on a fundamental level, you can’t predict the future.
Even if you knew the position of every single atom in the universe and how it moves, there would still be parts of reality beyond your reach. There is always undiscovered information, which is precisely why the future is unknowable. It’s nature’s way of protecting itself — and that’s beautiful.
What about AI?
A computer only understands one narrow layer of one diagonal of the billions of ways to look at something. Even quantum computers are still just one very superficial way of seeing reality, focused almost entirely on electronic input.
Simply put: a computer has no intuition. It cannot smell. It has no feel for a situation.
And those things — the invisible, unmeasurable things — are essential for truly understanding reality.